The European Carbon Market – EU ETS II 07.11.2023

At the beginning of this week, the price of the EUA certificate reached the lowest level in the last five months, closing the ICE ECX futures market in London at 75.66 euros/tCO2 (06.11.2023). In October, prices were 3.2% lower than in September. A similar downward trend can be observed on the European energy market, as a result of forecasts regarding a mild winter, as well as the decrease in gas demand from the North Sea and a decrease in nuclear energy production in France.

The European Social Fund and the EU ETS II

As part of the revision of the EU ETS ‘’Fit for 55’’ package, the European Commission has proposed to extend the emission reduction obligation to buildings and road transport sectors as well, creating a true parallel ETS, in fact called EU ETS II, which will operate by auctioning allowances only. To address the social impact arising from this new system, the Commission has proposed to introduce the Social Climate Fund, an economic fund to address challenges of the energy transition and achieving emissions neutrality by 2050 based on the data collected from a 2021 European Commission study in which 34 million people in Europe, nearly 9% of the population, said they lacked the financial support needed for sufficient heating in their homes.

Regulation 2023/955 is the legal basis establishing EU ETS II and the Fund and entered into force on June 5, 2023.

The main purpose of the Climate Social Fund is to provide temporary direct income support to the most vulnerable citizens and micro-enterprises affected by rising energy costs, particularly for heating and transportation due to the increased environmental obligations resulting from the introduction of ETS II. The fund, however, also aims to incentivize investments in member states that reduce emissions in the road transport and building sectors to improve the efficiency of both sectors and reduce environmental impact and social pressure together.

In this regard, the European Commission introduced two new contents during discussions on the Fit for 55 Package:

• “Energy Poverty” which shows households to lack sufficient economic resources to access essential energy services, such as heating, cooling, lighting, and energy to power appliances, and thus does not allow for the right to health and a decent standard of living;
• “Mobility Poverty”  – the Commission refers to the condition in which households face substantial costs to get around, having limited access to affordable means of transportation, with a specific focus on critical locations such as islands, mountainous regions, and less developed remote areas. These two concepts have been the basis for all discussions of the Social Climate Fund.

Part of the Fund will be financed by the earnings from the auctioning of ETS II emission allowances (up to 65 billion euros), with an additional 25 percent coming from resources made available nationally by member states, for a total of about 86.7 billion euros. Projects targeted for investments will have to meet the principle of “no significant harm” and will have to demonstrate actual emission reductions.

The existing Innovation Fund, which is under the ETS, will also receive significant support, with an increase in dedicated resources, again from the auctioning of allowances, from 450 million to 575 million allowances until 2030.

The Social Climate Fund will be operational from 2026, while the new ETS II for buildings and transport, will come into effect the following year, in 2027, or 2028, if energy prices continue to be too high.

The European Commission also included a requirement for governments to submit a “Social Climate Plan” by June 30, 2025, with the goal of stating which projects they want to target the Fund’s investments on, feasibility studies, long-term environmental goals, and state-specific needs to address and mitigate negative revenue impacts in the short-term. The Commission also urged states to consult with local governments and civil society organizations during the development of their Social Climate Plans to make sure that demands of those to whom the Fund’s aid is directed can truly be heard. Without a doubt, the adoption of the Social Climate Fund represents an important social justice milestone on the long road to energy transition and a clean, low-carbon economy.

Source: The European Commission, Brussels & Aither Group, Switzerland

The European Carbon Market: Maritime Transport – 28/08/2023

The EUA continued to increase last week towards the level of 85 euros/tCO2. If it exceeds the resistance line of 91 euros/tCO2, it is estimated that it can exceed the highest levels reached insofar.

 The maritime sector and the EU ETS

Maritime transport emissions account for about 3 percent of global emissions. There was a long negotiation on maritime transport and the Fit for 55 Package operation among European organizations, and an agreement was reached after intensive lobbying. On April 18, the European Council approved the final text for including maritime transport in the ETS from January 2024. The final legislative text was published in the European Official Journal in May and entered into force within 20 days of publication. Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and the Council establishing the ETS was therefore amended by Regulation 2023/957 to include maritime transport activities in the ETS. This ensures that these activities contribute to the emission reductions set by Regulation 2021/119, which establishes the European Green Deal and the Union’s binding climate neutrality target by 2050.

Regulation 2023/957 establishes rules for monitoring, reporting, and verification of CO2 emissions with respect to ships arriving at, sailing in, or departing from ports under the jurisdiction of a member state. From 2024 all ships traveling to and from European ports, of all flags, regardless of their port of origin, will be subject to ETS obligations, while for non-European voyages only 50 percent of emissions will be covered by the scheme. Maritime operators must compulsorily open an account in the Union ETS Registry to trade EUAs, submitting the necessary documentation to the operator’s home national administration, which will collect and verify the information. Importantly, from 2024 all ships entered into the system will not receive free allocation of allowances, and thus permission to pollute will have to be purchased through the auction mechanism or authorized financial intermediaries.
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Monitoring, reporting, and verification of CO2 emissions

The Regulation also mentions the MRV system. Ships within and above 5,000 Gigatonnes (GT), transiting the European maritime space and within EU ports, must monitor and report their fuel consumption and emissions, information that an EU-accredited body must then verify. This process is formally defined by EU Regulation 2015/757. The phase-in period is gradual: cargo and passenger ships within and above 5,000 G.T. to 40 percent of ETS obligations in 2024, 70 percent in 2025, and 100 percent in 2026. Offshore vessels over 5000 GT will have a 100% obligation directly from 2027. Ships of less than 5000 GT will not be included from 2024, because the EU wanted to avoid assuming an unnecessary regulatory burden for ships that consume only a small amount.

The Regulation also includes a section on the administrative authority of shipping companies. For shipping companies registered outside the Union, the administrative authority is the member state where the fleet has transited most in the last two years. For fleets that are still registered in a non-EU country but have yet to make any voyages to or from Europe in the past two years, the administrative authority becomes the Member State from which the fleet finished its first voyage since the ETS came into force.

In conclusion, from January 1, 2024, shipping companies must start monitoring their emissions until December 31, 2024. Verification of emissions by certifying bodies has a deadline of March 31, 2025, and the surrender of allowances must take place by September 30, 2025.

The Regulation under analysis also mentions the failure to surrender allowances, which will result in a penalty of 100 euros per ton, which is the standard penalty for ETS operators in the case of violation. Failure to surrender allowances for two or more consecutive periods will result in the expulsion of the shipping company from the ETS.

Source: European Commission, Aither Group AG.

The European Carbon Market – 30.01.2023

The New EU ETS Reform

Right now, the existing EU ETS covers around 40% of the EU’s emissions (energy sector, industrial installations and aviation).

Its scope is being extended to include maritime transport. Maritime transport will be the newcomer and large vessels of 5,000 gross tonnage and above must gradually surrender emission allowances (EUA) for an increasing share of their emissions: 40% in 2024, 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026. The inclusion of smaller vessels and non-CO2-emissions such as methane and N2O will likely start from 2026 onwards.

On top of that, the overall ambition of EU ETS emission reductions until 2030 compared to 2005 is increased from initial proposed 55% to 62%.

The agreement in the EU Parliament was reached on 18th of December 2022 and it would lead to about 23 million tons less CO2-emissions compared to the EU Commission’s proposal from 2021 and is much more aggressive than the minus 43% that has been the previous reduction target.

To achieve this stronger reduction of 62%, the legislators agreed on a rebasing of emissions:

·      90 million EUA are taken out of the market in 2024 with another 27 million EUA following in 2026;

·      The entire European mission cap will be reduced by 4.3% annually from 2024 to 2027;

·      From 2028 onwards this linear reduction factor (LRF) will rise to 4.4%.

·      The market stability reserve (MSR) will continue to take out 24% of surplus EUAs.

All these reductions will lead to significantly tighter supply of EUAs, drive prices in the next years and shall incentivise more decarbonisation especially in industrial sectors. This brings us to the changes for the industrial sector.

Fundamental change is also coming to the industrial sector, in particular the phase-out of free allocations of EUAs. From 2026 onwards, the number of free allowances handed over to industries will be reduced gradually until 2034 when industries have to procure all of their needed allowances through the auctioning mechanism or on the market.

Next to those sectors that are already under the EU ETS, a lot of emissions from other activities in the EU are not part of an emission pricing scheme. After much uncertainty about its prospects, it is now clear: a new or second emission trading system (EU ETS II) will be implemented as well for buildings and the transport sector, starting from 2025.

Source: EnergyPost.eu

The Carbon Market – 20.03.2023

The new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)

Initially, CBAM will cover the most emission-intensive sectors: iron and steel, cement, fertilisers, aluminium, electricity. The new agreements from 13th of December 2022, however, also feature hydrogen, certain precursors and other downstream products such as screws and bolts as imports under CBAM. In addition, the EU Commission will assess the inclusion of other products that might be at risk of carbon leakages such as organic chemicals and polymers into CBAM from 2030 onwards. Indirect emissions at the production facility might also have to be part of the emissions to be reported and consequently paid for by importing companies.

Timeframe for implementation

From October 2023 importers in the sectors covered by CBAM must be ready for their monitoring, reporting and verification obligations (MRV).

The pricing mechanism shall be launched in 2026.

At the same time and rate as European industries will not receive free allocations of EUA anymore, importers of certain goods into the EU will have to pay for the emissions of their products. This carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) should on the one hand create a level-playing field between EU and non-EU industries for products in the EU (both paying a similar carbon price) and increase climate ambition in non-EU states (climate instruments and carbon pricing abroad can reduce necessary payments for importers).

Two main contentious issues remain for CBAM

• How will reporting and verification methods and schemes really look like and work for imported goods? October is almost near and the MRV rules have not been yet set up.
• How to compensate or support companies that produce in the EU and must purchase EUAs but export to non-EU countries where no or less ambitious carbon pricing rules exist? Although signatories of the Climate Change Paris Agreement, regional, national or subnational mechanisms have different rules. Some 47 countries and 36 cities, states and provinces already use carbon pricing mechanisms, with more planning to implement them in the future.  Together the carbon pricing schemes now in place cover about half their emissions, which translates to about 23 percent of annual global greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: World Bank, Carbon Pricing Dashboard

EnergyPost.eu