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Archive for October, 2019

The CO2 Market 23.10.2019

CO2 prices rise for second consecutive week stopped today its uptrend course

Developments surrounding the UK’s exit from the EU set the direction of travel for EU carbon prices these two weeks, as prices climbed ahead of a vote in UK parliament that had been expected to confirm the country’s future involvement in the carbon market.

Carbon prices lost value in three of the five trading sessions last week, but still posted a weekly increase thanks to strong gains on 15 and 16 October, when prices rallied on expectations that the UK and EU would agree a Brexit deal ahead of an EU summit on 17-18 October. Yet, the British MPs later effectively voted for an extension of the Oct. 31 EU exit date, and prices began to drop, being at present time 25,20 Eur/tCO2.

The fate of the Brexit deal continues to impact the EU emission market

The fate of the Brexit deal has considerable implications for the EU ETS. If parliament approves the deal, the UK would remain in the carbon market until the end of 2020. This would also confirm that UK emitters must buy allowances to cover their emissions for 2019 and could create a surge of demand. This outcome would see the return of UK auctions and free allocation, which have been suspended throughout 2019.

Under a no-deal Brexit, the UK would exit the carbon market with immediate effect. UK emitters would not face ETS obligations for the 2019 calendar year.

 

EU carbon a “tricky” trade for now, but headed to €100 in two years, investor said to Carbon Pulse on 18.10.

Trading in EU carbon has become “very tricky” this year compared to last due to Brexit and a reversal in short-term fundamentals, according to one of the market’s most prominent long-term bulls, who predicts prices will top €100 early next decade.

Source: Carbon Pulse & AitherCO2

 

 

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The International CO2 Market

IEA-IETA-EPRI Conference on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trade

Casiana Fometescu, international CO2 consultant attended on behalf of ALLCOT Group the IEA-IETA-EPRI annual workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emission Trade, which was held at the International Energy Agency (IEA) premises in Paris, from 3-4 October 2019.

“This year, I could definitely see that the importance of the CO2 market worldwide has been tremendously grown. The number of the people at the conference doubled then last year, especially from governments representatives (Great Britain, Switzerland, European Commission, China, New Zealand, Canada etc.)”, mentioned Casiana Fometescu, Carbon Expert. Mark Lewis from BNP also said that he feels “like in the glory days of the carbon”, looking to the great audience and the topics discussed.

The international carbon market has become such an extended topic since federal policies, regions, states and companies have developed policies to reduce emissions, and each of them  have different technical details  in implementation. The presentations held explained many sub-national trading schemes or carbon initiatives (Ontario, Quebec, California), national (New Zealand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Costa Rica, Columbia), and supra-national carbon markets (EU ETS).

Few Take Aways

1. The representative of the World Bank, Celine Ramstein, recognised the importance of putting a price on carbon and mentioned that there are 46 national and 30 subnational jurisdiction with either carbon trading schemes or carbon taxes implemented. Yet, all the emissions trading schemes (ETS) in the world (including China) comprise just 20% from the worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG).
2. According to the last World Bank  (WB) report on the state of the carbon market, there is a diversity of carbon prices in different countries, ranging from 127 Euro/tCO2 in Sweden to 96 Euro/tCO2 in Switzerland, 25 Euro/tCO2 in the EU ETS to less then 10 Euro/tCO2 in the most countries covered by carbon prices. Just 5% of the global GHG have carbon prices between 40-80 Euro/tCO2.
3. The worldwide carbon revenues by governments are also on rise from 22 billion USD in 2016 to 33 billion USD in 2017, and 45 billion USD in 2018, according to the WB.
4. The voluntary market trading volumes has been rising in the recent years and companies are increasingly looking to set CO2 targets in line with the Paris Agreements, UN Millennium Goals, and EU targets for 2030 and 2050.
5. The EU target of carbon neutrality in 2050 can be achieved only if governments reinforce their National Determined Contributions (NDCs), and put higher targets to achieve through carbon offsetting and implementation of green technology, renewable energy and carbon storage measures.

6. Germany would like to introduce a national sectorial trading scheme in addition to the mandatory EU ETS, which will comprise more activity sectors compared to the EU ETS.
7. China has been moving forward on the implementation of the national ETS finalising Phase I with the plan to realise Phase 2 “simulation exercises” before the end of this year.
8. Article 6 UN negotiations of the Paris Agreement can represent an opportunity for private entities to contribute to global mitigation efforts through their participation in international market mechanisms through voluntary cooperation in the implementation of the UN countries NDCs. Yet, all pilot initiatives under the Article 6 are government initiatives and not private ones.
9. IETA’s 2019 GHG Market Sentiment Survey shows that 85% of respondents expect corporate voluntary action to increase over the next 5-10 years with businesses much more involved in reducing GHGs emissions and achieving their voluntary targets.

For more information, please contact us.

Source: IEA-IETA-EPRI Conference, Paris, 3-4 October

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The EU ETS Market

EU ETS buyers motivated to buy due to attractive prices

On 1st October 2019 the EUA was testing the very important rising trend line, which will also determine developments in the near future. The low to prices trading around 24,50 eur/t yesterday, 2nd October are also the 38,2% retracement of 2018 low to 7/2019 high. Although conditions call for a lower valuation (€22), as AitherCO2 have been analyzing a lot lately, prices are 22% lower from the high, on significant support and seem attractive. Market operators usually start purchasing allowances in advance when there is a collapse in the prices, as the exchange is very volatile and we could see quotations rising again, depending on Brexit’s outcome and other external factors.

The EU plans EU ETS changes

Further reforms to the EU emissions trading system (ETS) directive are likely during the 2020s, including a reduction in the free allowances given to airlines.

We will provide more about this information next week together with the conclusions of the IETA – EPRI – IEA Annual Workshop on Greenhouse Emissions Gases Trading, which takes place these days, from 3-4 October 2019 in Paris, where our International CO2 Consultant, Casiana Fometescu, has been invited to participate.

Source: AitherCO2, London and IETA, Paris

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