UNFCCC COP23 Bonn Results

Casiana Fometescu from Carbon Expert participated to the annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climpate Change COP23, which was held between 6 – 17 November in Bonn, and gathered over 28,000 participants from all over the world, from high state officials to NGOs and businesses.

This year’s UNFCCC climate summit in Bonn was never going to be a high-profile world event like Paris in 2015. Climate diplomats came away from the French capital two years ago with a mandate to negotiate the rules that will underpin the Paris Agreement from 2020, and that process continues until next year.

However, this was the first Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change since Donald Trump came to power in the United States, and the climate community was anxiously awaiting to see how the US would treat the remaining four years of its membership of the Paris treaty.

There were many key technical issues that needed to be progressed, ranging from finance to transparency to international carbon markets. The goal is to complete work on the “Paris rulebook” in time for next year’s COP24 in Katowice, Poland.

Outside of the technical negotiations, the main attraction was the United States. The team of career diplomats from the State Department arrived without fanfare and promised to engage with their colleagues in crafting rules for Paris despite the fact that as things stand, the US will not be a party by the time the new regime takes effect.

On the sidelines of the talks, a group of high-profile American politicians and businessmen, including California governor Jerry Brown and media mogul Michael Bloomberg, headed an alternative US delegation, which highlighted that the lack of federal climate policy is dwarfed by the amount of action taking place at a sub-national level.

One of the main headlines: the UK and Canada announced an alliance of 20 nations that are committed to phasing out coal as a power fuel. The group said it hopes to have 50 member states by next year’s meeting.

And while coal has already been under attack for some time, Norway took things a step further. The country’s central bank said it will recommend to the government that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund – the world’s biggest – should divest from oil and gas companies.

But half-way through the two-week conference, scientists from the Global Carbon Project cast a pall over the meeting when they reported that emissions would likely rise in 2017, after three years of little change.

Within the negotiations themselves, the main goals included establishing a system for countries to be able to share and analyze their progress towards decarbonization. This transparency mechanism would also apply to the financial contributions that developed countries have committed to making to the most vulnerable nations.

In Bonn, rich countries managed to resist efforts calling for a fuller account of their contributions while in turn, developing countries blocked calls for them to provide greater detail on their emissions reductions. Talks on transparency will resume next year.

There were also proposals that wealthy nations should do more in the run-up to the start of the Paris Agreement in 2020. Part of this involves greater adherence to goals set up under the Doha Amendment, which extends the Kyoto Protocol to 2020. Countries agreed to set up special sessions next year to review interim progress on reductions and on climate finance.

The controversial proposal for compensation for climate effects – known as “loss and damage” – also reappeared, but met with continued resistance from the richer nations. However, the meeting did agree to further talks.

All in all, Bonn represented a step forward on the path to a Paris rulebook, most observers agreed. However, there is much to do. On carbon markets, for example, there was very little obvious advance: negotiators exchanged ideas on potential rules, but the proposals for a final text quickly grew out of control and must be slimmed down dramatically by next December.

Source: Carbon Expert and Allcot Group

The Carbon Market – 05.10.2017

The ICE exchange from London trades today, 05.10.2017, CO2 certificates and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 6.91
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 6.92
• CER daily futures: € 0.20
• Brent Crude futures Dec’17: $ 56.21

The European CO2 Market EU ETS

The third quarter 2017 European Emission Allowances EUA closed with an increase of more than 40% against the previous quarter. Also from point of view of the first nine months, the pollution rights rose around 8%.

A important reason therefor could be the upcoming negotiations of the European Member states, which will review their position on the EU-ETS reform plans on Friday this week. Than they will discuss the proposal of cancellation of emission rights from the market stability reserve starting in 2023.

The previous proposal did not mention a cancellation, what could lead to the fact, that they could return into the market, if there was a surplus of less than 433 million units. The European Parliament also supports the cancellation of 800 million units after January 1st, 2021.

EU carbon prices are set to more than double to €15-20 by 2019-20 as utilities up their hedging, curbing supply just as the MSR starts sucking up hundreds of millions of allowances, a Barclays analyst said.

Source: Barclays, London

The CO2 Market – 25.09.2017

The ICE exchange from London trades today, 25.09.2017, CO2 certificates and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 6.64
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 6.65
• CER spot: € 0.20
• Brent Crude futures Dec’17: $ 56.81

The European Climate Policy

Germany has become a key player in international climate politics in recent years, yet it is falling behind its domestic carbon targets. Angela Merkel is likely to need one or two coalition partners from the five other parties expected to enter the Bundestag. This means the next government’s priorities will have to be negotiated post-election and may not reflect individual party positions.

While the election outcome is unlikely to alter its global positioning, future government policy will likely affect its national climate progress.

The market of European emission allowances reacts positive and showed a small plus on Monday morning. Last week on the other hand, the EUA market was bearish in the second half on swinging trading sessions, what was caused not least by weaker German power prices.

At the same time, ETS company mergers are on track: Germany’s ThyssenKrupp and India’s Tata Steel have agreed to merge their European operations to create the bloc’s number two steel producer and one of the biggest emitting companies in the EU ETS.

To read more on the German climate policy, please click here.

The Carbon Market – 27.07.2017

The ICE exchange from London trades today, 27.07.2017, CO2 certificates and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 5.10
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 5.19
• CER daily futures: € 0.23
• Brent Crude futures Sept’17: $ 50.83

The European CO2 Market

With the start into the past trading week, the carbon market has interrupted its soaring flight, which started in mid-May. The price with it tested the rising support line just above the five-euro mark. In the past two months, the price had increased by around 1.35 EUR, so that the current correction fits well into the landscape. If, however, the price won’t find stable ground this week, a breakthrough down could consume a lot of the gained terrain. However, in the case that the support holds, a further, clear price increase is even possible in the direction of EUR 6.00.

Source: Advantag Brokerage Gmbh., Germany

The CO2 Market – 1.06.2017

Innovate4Climate Summit took place last week in Barcelona from 22nd to 25th May. Casiana Fometescu, CO2 consultant from Carbon Expert took part at this event, which gathered hundreds participants all over the world, from the carbon industry, but also from private and public financing institutions, NGOs etc. The event was organized by the World Bank in partnership with IETA (International Emissions Trading Association).

Innovate4Climate saw the publication of the annual IETA “GHG Market Sentiment Survey”. Conducted by PwC, the survey of 135 IETA members from across the globe raised widespread concerns that an increase in nationalist policies could hinder an international response to climate change.

The survey showed members of the group expect prices for EUAs will average €8.29/mt over the whole of Phase 3 (2013-2020), a drop of 10% from last year’s survey.

The poll revealed price forecasts ranging from €8/mt to €11/mt for the whole of Phase 3, which the lobby said was consistent with predictions in the last four annual surveys. Expectations for prices out to 2030 also dipped, while the majority of respondents agree that a carbon price floor is needed in the EU ETS.

For Phase 4 (2021-2030) IETA members forecast an average of €16.28/t, down 8.7% from last year’s prediction of €17.83/mt and €18.40/mt in 2015.

Source: “GHG Market Sentiment Survey”, IETA

#Innovate4Climate #climatechange #WorldBank

The Carbon Market 09.05.2017

The ICE exchange from London closed yesterday, 08.05.2017, its CO2 tradings and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 4.47
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 4.42
• CER daily futures: € 0.24
• Brent Crude futures August’17: $ 49.76

The European CO2 Market

Data from the European Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, shows that last year carbon dioxide emissions dropped by 1.4% in Romania compared to 2015, with Romania accounting for 2.1% of total CO2 emissions of the European Union.

Ten other Member States have reduced their emissions: Malta, Bulgaria, Portugal, Great Britain, Luxembourg, Greece, Italy, Estonia, the Czech Republic and Belgium. The largest percentage of emissions reduction was recorded in Malta, 18.2%. However, Malta is a small state and accounts for only 0.04% of total European emissions. On the other hand, Bulgaria hass the second highest carbon dioxide emissions in the EU with 7%, followed by Portugal with 5.7% and the UK with 4, 8%.

In contrast, 17 European countries increased their carbon dioxide emissions, with the largest increase being recorded in Finland, 8.5%, in Cyprus, 7%, and in Slovenia and Denmark, 5.8% r,espectively 5.7%.

However, Germany, 22.9%, the United Kingdom, 11.7%, and Italy 10.1%, have the largest proportions of total carbon dioxide emissions in the EU.

At European Union scale, carbon emissions decreased last year by 0.4% compared to the previous year.

Source: Eurostat, Bruxelles

The CO2 Market – 14.04.2017

The ICE exchange from London open today, 14.04.2017, its CO2 tradings and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 4.97
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 4.96
• CER daily futures: € 0.27
• Brent Crude futures May’17: $ 55.64

Carbon Expert team wishes you that the light of Jesus Christ brings you peace and  blessings in your lives!

Happy Eastern!

The Carbon Market – 29.03.2017

The ICE exchange from London closed yesterday, 28.03.2017, its CO2 tradings and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 4.72
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 4.73
• CER daily futures: € 0.27
• Brent Crude futures May’17: $ 51.65

The EU ETS Reform

Last month, the European Parliament approved the environment committee’s (ENVI) package with several key modifications:

• The Linear Reduction Factor (LRF), the rate at which the cap shrinks each year, will be increased from the current 1.74% to 2.2% rather than ENVI’s proposed 2.4%;
• The Market Stability Reserve will withdraw 24% of the surplus in the market for the first four years of its operation from 2019, rather than 12%; and
• Airlines will see their free allocations cut by 10% from 2021.

At the same time, the Commission proposed to continue with the current geographic scope of the EU Emissions Trading System for aviation, covering only flights between airports in the European Economic Area (intra-EU flights) – de facto meaning an extension of the ‘stop the clock’ provision.

For English, please press here.

Source: European Commission, Brussels and IETA, Geneva

The CO2 and Energy Market – 14.02.2017

A little more exciting than in the past few weeks, it could soon become in the European carbon market. Although there are no significant external influences, the CO2 chart is actually moving towards a decision. Since the beginning of 2017, the price has only moved sideways, but the range lately is getting smaller and smaller.

There must therefore be an outbreak in the near future, but still unknown, in which direction. It is interesting to note that the most important energy indices, namely oil, gas, electricity and coal, have a nearly identical chart situation.

In the opinion of market observers, therefore, a quite significant price change could be imminent.

The ICE exchange from London currently trades CO2 credits and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 5.02
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 5.03
• CER daily futures: € 0.28
• Brent Crude futures May’17: $ 56.43

Source: Advantag Brokerage Gmbh, Germany

The CO2 and Energy Market 09.02.2017

The ICE exchange from London currently trades CO2 credits and Brent Crude as follows:

• EUA spot:  € 5.35
• EUA Dec ’17 futures: € 5.32
• CER daily futures: € 0.28
• Brent Crude futures Apr’17: $ 56.010

Green Energy News

The new report “Expect the Unexpected: The Disruptive Power of Low-carbon Technology”, launched last week by Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, highlights that falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology could halt growth in demand for oil and coal from 2020.

The report challenges the business as usual approach of companies and finds that:

• EVs could make up a third of the road transport market by 2035, half by 2040 and two thirds by 2050 with 1.7 billion vehicles on the road;

• Growth in EVs could displace 2 million barrels of oil a day by 2025, the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15. By 2040 they could displace 16mbd of oil;

• Solar PV could supply 23% of global power generation in 2040 and 29% by 2050, entirely phasing out coal and leaving gas with a 1% market share.

Source: Grantham Institute at Imperial College, London